Normally, drawing the Sixth Region in the boys' state tournament is cause to expect a short stay in Lexington. But the western half of Louisville is as weak as it's ever been, and that gives teams like Paducah Tilghman and Marshall County some reasons for optimism.
The boys' and girls' Sweet 16 draws were conducted Friday in Lexington, and in both cases, the First Region got winnable first-round games.
We'll discuss the girls' draw in a moment.
In the Sixth Region, six teams appear to have a legitimate chance — Bullitt East, Pleasure Ridge Park, Fairdale, Central, Iroquois and Shawnee.
Central is the defending regional champion and lost a close game to Marshall County at the Toyota of Hopkinsville tournament just before Christmas, but that was when the Yellowjackets didn't have several football players that had just won the state championship.
Shawnee, which beat Murray handily in the All A Classic, looms as a darkhorse. Pleasure Ridge Park and Fairdale are the traditional powers, but PRP isn't nearly as talented as some of its prime-time teams of the past and Fairdale's club — which may have the best talent — has yet to jell.
The quarterfinal matchup will be much tougher. The Seventh Region might be the deepest and strongest in the state, with Jeffersontown, Eastern and Ballard each among the state's top half-dozen teams. Even the second-tier contenders (Seneca, Male, Trinity, Manual, Moore, St. Xavier) might have a shot to advance to the finals.
Their first-round opponent figures to be either Corbin and South Laurel, the clear favorites in the 13th Region.
On the girls' side, the First Region drew the Second Region, which probably forecasts a rematch of some sort.
Henderson County is the favorite and has lost to both Marshall County and Calloway County, both games coming on the Lakers' home court. Webster County has beaten Calloway handily and Christian County beat Marshall on a neutral court just after Christmas.
It's a winnable game for the First Region, as could be the quarterfinal. Marshall has beaten 13th Region favorite Clay County and lost to South Laurel at the Laurel County Hoop Fest, just after Clay County edged Calloway by two points.
Ohio County is the Third Region favorite and could be a potential quarterfinal opponent.
Here are the pairings for both state tournaments and the favorites in the respective regions:
GIRLS
March 11-14
(at Western Kentucky University)
Region 6 (Iroquois, Butler, Bullitt East) vs. Region 4 (Franklin-Simpson, Bowling Green, Warren East)
Region 7 (Manual, Mercy, Sacred Heart, Christian Academy of Louisville) vs. Region 10 (Montgomery County)
Region 14 (Breathitt County, Letcher Central) vs. Region 8 (Simon Kenton, Anderson County)
Region 12 (Rockcastle County, Lincoln County, Casey County) vs. Region 15 (Johnson Central)
Region 11 (Lexington Christian, Dunbar, Tates Creek, Lafayette, Lexington Catholic) vs. Region 5 (North Hardin, Elizabethtown, Nelson County, Marion County)
Region 9 (Fort Thomas Highlands, Newport Catholic, Boone County) vs. Region 16 (Rowan County)
Region 3 (Ohio County) vs. Region 13 (Clay County, South Laurel)
Region 1 (Calloway County, Marshall County) vs. Region 2 (Henderson County, Webster County, Christian County)
BOYS
March 18-21
(at Rupp Arena)
Region 12 (West Jessamine, McCreary Central, Lincoln County) vs. Region 14 (Hazard, Perry Central, Knott Central)
Region 3 (Muhlenberg North, Grayson County, Owensboro) vs. Region 5 (North Hardin, John Hardin, Adair County, Taylor County)
Region 1 (Paducah Tilghman, Marshall County, Calloway County, Murray) vs. Region 6 (Bullitt East, Pleasure Ridge Park, Fairdale, Central)
Region 7 (Eastern, Ballard, Jeffersontown, Seneca, Male, Trinity) vs. Region 13 (Corbin, South Laurel)
Region 11 (Scott County, Bryan Station, Lexington Catholic, Dunbar) vs. Region 4 (Warren Central, Bowling Green)
Region 9 (Covington Holmes, Boone County, Fort Thomas Highlands) vs. Region 2 (Christian County, Henderson County)
Region 10 (Mason County, Clark County) vs. Region 15 (Shelby Valley)
Region 8 (Anderson County, North Oldham, Shelby County) vs. Region 16 (Elliott County)
BOYS
Region
Friday, January 30, 2009
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