A seven-year Holliday?

The St. Louis Cardinals resigned outfielder Matt Holliday, almost on default.

Holliday's contract demands (five or more years and at least $100 million) and the reputation of super-agent Scott Boras scared off just about every other team in baseball. The New York Mets preferred Jason Bay and his more modest demands. Boston chose to make pitcher John Lackey its big-ticket signing. The Yankees could probably afford Holliday, but chose not to get in the bidding. Baltimore reportedly showed some interest, but not on Holliday's financial terms.

So why did the Cardinals give Holliday a seven-year deal for $120 million, essentially bidding only against themselves?

It's a legitimate question, and it's likely to be one Cardinal fans are asking sometime around 2013 or 2014, when Holliday is likely to be in steep decline, not to mention when he's 36 at the end of the contract. Baseball-reference.com lists the top 10 most comparable players for Holliday through age 29, and the list isn't very encouraging. Wally Berger was out of baseball at age 36, as was Hall of Famer Chick Hafey.

Among the modern comps are Magglio Ordonez, whose power took a big dip at age 35 last season. Fred Lynn and Tim Salmon were well on the way down by their mid-30s. And also remember that Holliday's early-career numbers which earned those comps were a bit inflated by his five seasons in Colorado.

Holliday is a fine player, a quality hitter with fairly good power and a couple of 100-RBI seasons. He won't play at the superstar level he did for the two months after the Cardinals acquired him from Oakland, but he's a proven cleanup hitter and, with Albert Pujols, gives the Cardinals as good a 1-2 punch as there is in the National League.

But Holliday is getting much more money for more years than he should, and that presents some problems for the Cardinals when Pujols' new contract comes due in a couple of years. Can the Cardinals afford to keep Holliday, Pujols, Yadier Molina and Adam Wainwright for the long term, especially if the franchise has $40 million or more tied into two hitters? And how will they fill the rest of the roster with the farm system gutted by a couple of recent trades?